Apprehension as FG borrows N20.1trn under Tinubu

Analysis showed that the average MPR rose to 20.32 per cent in the 12 months ending May 2024, representing 4.11 percentage points increase from 16.21 per cent in the preceding 12 months ending May 2023.

As a result, the average interest rate on NTBs rose to 9.1 per cent in 12 months ending May 2024, representing 5.1 percentage points from 4.0 per cent in the preceding 12 months ending May 2023.

In the same vein, the average interest rate on FGN Savings Bond rose to 17.91 per cent at the May 2024 auction from 10.89 per cent at the May 2023 auction.

Analysts’ comments

Notwithstanding the influence of the high interest rate regime, analysts expressed concern that the sharp rise in FG’s borrowing from domestic investors is harmful to the private sector as it makes it more costly for businesses to borrow.

The analysts were however divided on the impact of the borrowings on inflation.

Commenting, Co-Founding Partner, Comercio Partners, a Lagos based investment bank, Nnamdi Nwizu, said: “The increase in borrowing by the government means that there will be more spending by the government, which will have a huge impact on inflation as it will drive demand for goods. Governments are always the largest spender in the world, so the more money they spend, the higher the attendant inflationary pressure. Note also that since they are borrowing at record levels, it means that when they are servicing the debt, they will put a lot more funds in the hands of the public.

“Lending to the Private Sector has been impacted with corporates issuing bonds and Commercial Papers at record levels.

“Whilst we continue to see a lot of issuances by the private sector (above 25% yields), we also see that the smaller corporates are struggling as the government is crowding them out. If an investor can invest in one year risk free NTBs at 25% yields, they would naturally ask for a premium when lending to the private sector. How many companies can afford to borrow at these steep levels and still be profitable? Also, the higher lending rates will lead to inflationary pressures as the corporates have to increase prices to cover for the higher borrowing rates.

“With respect to fiscal policy, we are yet to see the borrowing by the government have an impact on fiscal policy. Yes, we have the Coastal roads being built, but we would like to see more with regards to policies to help increase production output in the economy. Also, we expect to see a significant increase in debt servicing costs, factoring in the higher rates and increase in domestic borrowing.

“With respect to monetary policy, whilst the Central Bank continues on its hawkish trend, we expect pressure from the government on the Central Bank as its debt service costs rise. The government cannot afford to borrow at these levels for an extended period of time. Government spending can also lead to more pressure on the currency as it means more Naira available to chase the greenback.”

Similarly, Head of Equity Research, FBN Securities Limited, Tunde Abidoye, said: “Government borrowing could potentially fuel inflationary pressures. In addition there’s an indirect effect on exchange rates. Also, there’s the crowding out effect for private sector lending. As it is, not many businesses can afford to borrow at the elevated interest rate. Finally, the monetary policy response to all this may be to continue to raise interest rates in a bid to tame the spiraling inflation.”

However, Chinazom Izuorah, Senior Associate, Investment Brokerage, differed on the impact of the FG’s domestic borrowing on inflation, though she also noted it will make it costly for businesses to borrow.

She said: “The Federal Government’s domestic borrowing program has not changed in the last year. The government’s calendar for offering FGN bonds, savings bonds and Treasury bills remains consistent and in line with historical practice.

“The reason for the increase in value is due to the increase in MPR and the knock-on effect on interest rates for the FGN securities.

“At interest rates of 17% and above, the government’s instruments are more attractive than in the previous year and consequently there is increased interest and participation.  This is also consistent with the CBN’s objective of reducing inflation by mopping up liquidity. In simple terms, higher interest rates create an incentive to save.”

She stated the impact of this in terms of inflationary pressure is that with the greater incentive to save, there will be less money in circulation which is crucial to limiting inflation.

“In terms of lending to the private sector:  Higher interest rates on government securities, which are considered the safest instruments, is a disincentive to lending to the private sector, which is considered riskier.

“Money tends to fly to safety. Banks, other financial institutions and fund managers have little incentive to take-on riskier assets when they can get attractive returns lending the funds to the government.

“On the fiscal policy front the government uses the funds raised through the issuance of securities to fund the national budget. The present administration has earmarked a significant portion of the budget to capital expenditures, portions will also be used to fund recurring expenditures and debt service.